It won’t be a White Christmas this year, that’’s for sure but it will be wet.
The National Weather Service office in North Little Rock forecasts that the rain will start on Friday and continue through Tuesday, Dec. 26.
On Christmas Eve, Sunday, the forecast is a 90 percent chance of rain with a high of 60. On Monday, Christmas, the high jumps to 62 degrees and the chance of rain is at 50 percent.
As the office said. “this will be a Christmas (like so many) without that postcard moment” with “mild conditions” but, “For now, the pattern does not favor severe weather.”
This is quite a bit different from last year’s forecast, that some parts of northern Arkansas got a dusting of snow on Christmas morning along with really cold temperatures int he single digits and wind chills below even that.
North Little Rock took the step of opening a warming shelter for those who needed a bit of heat.
The forecast could, of course, change but unlikely given the forecast “El Niño” winter that’s expected.
El Niño?
Yes, the weather service wrote, “one of the most reliable long-range predictors deals with monitoring water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. If the water cools, we trend toward La Niña. If warming occurs, then it's El Niño.”
And, “in the coming months, the pendulum will swing strongly toward El Niño, which favors warmer and drier conditions across the northern states, and a wetter scenario farther south this winter.”
So it will be warmer and will likely bring rain.
NWS forecast for central Arkansas
Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 58 and a low around 42.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57 and a low around 48.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61, with a low around 53.
Sunday (Christmas Eve): Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 60. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent.Low around 53.
Monday (Christmas Day): A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62, with a low around 43.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 54, with a low around 43.
The lack of forecast snow means the elusive “White Christmas” remains that way for Arkansas.
The National Weather Service has been keeping records in Arkansas since 1875 and the state saw snowfall in just 12 of those years on Christmas, while in three other years, the state already had snow on the ground, so people at least woke up to a White Christmas.
The most recent “White Christmas” was exactly a decade ago when a surprise blizzard hit Arkansas in 2012.
A real blizzard, not the kind you get at Dairy Queen, when the Weather Service issued a “blizzard warning” for northeast Arkansas. Making it the state’s first “official blizzard.”
Little Rock, that day, saw a recorded nine inches of snow, while most other parts of the state saw more than 10 inches of snow. It was even more snow in the higher elevations of north-central Arkansas getting 15 to a high of 17.5 inches that day.
The snow kept falling as 1.3 inches of snow were recorded in Little Rock on the following day, with other portions of the state getting more.
The results from the snow were fairly typical, snarled roads, stranded travelers and more than 260,000 homes and businesses lost power that day, with the state taking a week, or more to recover.
That year was just one of two White Christmases, where snow starts that day and accumulates to at least one inch, with the other happening in 1926.
There’s been a total of 16 times with snow in and around Christmas in Arkansas, with measurable snow seen four times, with flurries or trace amounts falling nine times. The other three times were from Christmas Eve, or earlier, snow.
Past White Christmases
1876: Two inches of snow was on the ground from snowfall on Christmas Eve.
1879: Christmas Eve rain changed to snow, which continued into Christmas morning.
1887: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1897: One inch of snow fell on Christmas Day morning.
1913: Snow started at midnight and continued on Christmas Day. A total of 1.5 inches of snow fell.
1914: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1918: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1926: Sleet turned into snow with a total of 1.7 inches of sleet and 2.5 inches of snow.
1935: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1939: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1962: Christmas Eve snow of 1.5 inches but it melted during the night leaving only patches of snow on the ground Christmas morning.
1963: Heavy snow on Dec. 22 left more than four inches still on the ground by Christmas Day.
1975: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1983: Snow from earlier that week left about an inch of snow and ice still on the ground.
1990: 2.4 inches of snow and sleet fell earlier in the week and most of it remained on the ground through Christmas Day.
2000: A trace of snow was on the ground on Christmas Day but the worst was still to come as a major long-term ice storm developed that day and continued through Dec. 27. It left three inches of ice in Little Rock and more around the state, completely shutting down Arkansas in one of the worst ice storms in recorded history.
2009: Snow fell with no accumulation.
2012: Nine inches of snow in Little Rock, with more around Arkansas for the state’s snowiest White Christmas.
2022: After seeing some 1 to 2 inches across the state's northern third and extending south to West Memphis on Dec. 21-22. Hopes were high last year and while some parts of northern Arkansas's hill country woke up Christmas morning to see a "light dusting" of snow. It missed the authentic White Christmas experience of at least 1 inch of snow. While central Arkansas didn't even get that, it was, as you might remember extremely cold last year with single digit temperatures and wind chills well below that.
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A Wet Christmas
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It won’t be a White Christmas this year, that’’s for sure but it will be wet.
The National Weather Service office in North Little Rock forecasts that the rain will start on Friday and continue through Tuesday, Dec. 26.
On Christmas Eve, Sunday, the forecast is a 90 percent chance of rain with a high of 60. On Monday, Christmas, the high jumps to 62 degrees and the chance of rain is at 50 percent.
As the office said. “this will be a Christmas (like so many) without that postcard moment” with “mild conditions” but, “For now, the pattern does not favor severe weather.”
This is quite a bit different from last year’s forecast, that some parts of northern Arkansas got a dusting of snow on Christmas morning along with really cold temperatures int he single digits and wind chills below even that.
North Little Rock took the step of opening a warming shelter for those who needed a bit of heat.
The forecast could, of course, change but unlikely given the forecast “El Niño” winter that’s expected.
El Niño?
Yes, the weather service wrote, “one of the most reliable long-range predictors deals with monitoring water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. If the water cools, we trend toward La Niña. If warming occurs, then it's El Niño.”
And, “in the coming months, the pendulum will swing strongly toward El Niño, which favors warmer and drier conditions across the northern states, and a wetter scenario farther south this winter.”
So it will be warmer and will likely bring rain.
NWS forecast for central Arkansas
Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 58 and a low around 42.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57 and a low around 48.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61, with a low around 53.
Sunday (Christmas Eve): Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 60. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent.Low around 53.
Monday (Christmas Day): A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62, with a low around 43.
Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 54, with a low around 43.
The lack of forecast snow means the elusive “White Christmas” remains that way for Arkansas.
The National Weather Service has been keeping records in Arkansas since 1875 and the state saw snowfall in just 12 of those years on Christmas, while in three other years, the state already had snow on the ground, so people at least woke up to a White Christmas.
The most recent “White Christmas” was exactly a decade ago when a surprise blizzard hit Arkansas in 2012.
A real blizzard, not the kind you get at Dairy Queen, when the Weather Service issued a “blizzard warning” for northeast Arkansas. Making it the state’s first “official blizzard.”
Little Rock, that day, saw a recorded nine inches of snow, while most other parts of the state saw more than 10 inches of snow. It was even more snow in the higher elevations of north-central Arkansas getting 15 to a high of 17.5 inches that day.
The snow kept falling as 1.3 inches of snow were recorded in Little Rock on the following day, with other portions of the state getting more.
The results from the snow were fairly typical, snarled roads, stranded travelers and more than 260,000 homes and businesses lost power that day, with the state taking a week, or more to recover.
That year was just one of two White Christmases, where snow starts that day and accumulates to at least one inch, with the other happening in 1926.
There’s been a total of 16 times with snow in and around Christmas in Arkansas, with measurable snow seen four times, with flurries or trace amounts falling nine times. The other three times were from Christmas Eve, or earlier, snow.
Past White Christmases
1876: Two inches of snow was on the ground from snowfall on Christmas Eve.
1879: Christmas Eve rain changed to snow, which continued into Christmas morning.
1887: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1897: One inch of snow fell on Christmas Day morning.
1913: Snow started at midnight and continued on Christmas Day. A total of 1.5 inches of snow fell.
1914: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1918: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1926: Sleet turned into snow with a total of 1.7 inches of sleet and 2.5 inches of snow.
1935: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1939: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1962: Christmas Eve snow of 1.5 inches but it melted during the night leaving only patches of snow on the ground Christmas morning.
1963: Heavy snow on Dec. 22 left more than four inches still on the ground by Christmas Day.
1975: Snow fell with no accumulation.
1983: Snow from earlier that week left about an inch of snow and ice still on the ground.
1990: 2.4 inches of snow and sleet fell earlier in the week and most of it remained on the ground through Christmas Day.
2000: A trace of snow was on the ground on Christmas Day but the worst was still to come as a major long-term ice storm developed that day and continued through Dec. 27. It left three inches of ice in Little Rock and more around the state, completely shutting down Arkansas in one of the worst ice storms in recorded history.
2009: Snow fell with no accumulation.
2012: Nine inches of snow in Little Rock, with more around Arkansas for the state’s snowiest White Christmas.
2022: After seeing some 1 to 2 inches across the state's northern third and extending south to West Memphis on Dec. 21-22. Hopes were high last year and while some parts of northern Arkansas's hill country woke up Christmas morning to see a "light dusting" of snow. It missed the authentic White Christmas experience of at least 1 inch of snow. While central Arkansas didn't even get that, it was, as you might remember extremely cold last year with single digit temperatures and wind chills well below that.