The absence of bad news

Good news, by definition, is good.

Sometimes though, good news is the result of the absence of bad news.

That’s the case with Covid in Arkansas as there’s news and it is better then weeks, and years, previous, and while the death count in the state now stands at 11,152, as of Wednesday afternoon.

Things are starting to trend down.

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Where once topline forecasts called for more than 13,000 dead Arkansans from the ongoing pandemic, now that number is under 12,000.

As you can see below:

The forecast numbers are from the Centers for Disease Control and are through the middle of April.

Most forecasts are calling for around 11,500 deaths by April 16, or an an average of roughly 90 deaths a week.

Curiously, though, there’s some real divergence on weekly new deaths. With roughly half calling for 100 to 150 new deaths a week.

Which was this past week with 153 deaths. There’s also some real outliers with more than 250 new weekly deaths or over 1,000 people in the next four weeks.

Time will tell but, regardless, that’s still a lot of people.

If you don’t want to get sick and die, there’s some things you can do:
Get vaccinated
Get boosted
Wear a mask
Avoid crowds